Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 178.538432 217.725798 266.767688 333.923624 425.574162 5.495427e+02 7.359465e+02
2025-02-23 133.191447 177.416694 240.148658 339.805239 502.951260 7.781690e+02 1.328086e+03
2025-03-02 105.263092 148.296974 214.548541 331.226986 550.017935 9.921525e+02 2.142628e+03
2025-03-09 87.434601 128.294464 195.136916 322.635285 589.808490 1.223066e+03 3.367096e+03
2025-03-16 74.258448 112.309136 177.480207 309.790767 613.415796 1.440730e+03 5.070528e+03
2025-03-23 69.900910 109.721524 181.943944 340.850511 753.179927 2.130172e+03 1.153662e+04
2025-03-30 63.394636 102.085808 175.123988 345.423777 830.377370 2.744618e+03 2.312291e+04
2025-04-06 59.005372 97.453444 173.003212 360.008515 948.538588 3.771239e+03 6.173424e+04
2025-04-13 53.591911 90.034690 163.627066 353.536395 996.099035 4.585209e+03 1.506179e+05
2025-04-20 51.973806 89.651597 169.062569 388.158901 1225.125020 7.415688e+03 2.222905e+06
2025-04-27 50.072666 88.382858 172.235824 418.097308 1473.218432 1.207433e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 47.917319 86.258858 172.968434 441.315656 1725.070268 1.963482e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 45.331029 83.057692 170.945091 456.939204 1977.889524 3.275272e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 42.772928 79.598917 167.679079 467.669354 2231.954271 5.643125e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 39.594389 74.374609 158.897386 454.951770 2311.438321 8.004868e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 36.779851 69.663874 150.725295 441.950916 2380.481260 1.150830e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 34.062026 64.893650 141.663639 422.502675 2375.030171 1.510405e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 33.751019 65.649326 147.989562 469.770566 3112.115118 8.301338e+05 NaN
2025-06-22 32.226918 63.361085 145.255098 476.785886 3468.044138 3.566070e+06 NaN
2025-06-29 31.225747 62.220141 145.697201 499.248369 4119.348418 4.467884e+08 NaN
2025-07-06 29.518718 59.179690 139.938618 489.263302 4293.024926 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.342332 59.915273 145.937190 542.992770 5826.783567 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 28.934676 60.018649 150.001890 590.061437 7703.157233 NaN NaN